As global demand for healthy, protein-packed snacks continues to rise, California almonds are positioning themselves as a top choice in international markets.
One region holding promising potential for almond exports is North Africa. That’s because countries like Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, and Egypt already have a strong tradition of nut consumption, particularly almonds.
When combined with increasing incomes, the shift in consumer habits aligns well with the benefits that almonds provide.
“It’s a new area, but it really does show incredible potential,” said Julie Adams, vice president, global and technical affairs at the Almond Board of California (ABC). “We can’t afford not to pay attention to this region, and we need to look at the opportunities.”
Ready to become a player
There are many reasons why North Africa looks to be an attractive market for California almonds to pursue, but arguably the most important is the population boom expected to happen on the continent over the next 25 years.
“The United Nations forecast that the total population in the continent is almost going to double from 2025 to 2050,” said Brad Rose, partner at Rose Research.
Rose said that similar to India 15-20 years ago, this growing population is expected to be a younger demographic with an interest in health and nutrition.
Additionally, North Africa’s vast urbanization, high fertility rates and strengthened purchasing power point in a positive direction for California almonds.
Up until now, the overall footprint the United States has had in African markets has been minuscule, according to Rose. This was determined in 2020 when the USDA commissioned Rose Research to conduct an in-depth consumer and trade investigation in Africa.
The results showed that the EU and China have been in these markets far longer than the U.S.
Fortunately, there is strong interest in American products.
Seventy-five percent of African consumers voiced their acceptance of buying a product labeled from the U.S, and 88% even said they’d pay a premium for them.
“Despite us not having an awful lot of products available on the continent right now, the U.S. generates very strong perceptions, from a safety, quality, and sustainability standpoint,” Rose said. “The U.S. is already well-positioned on a lot of key metrics, and we need to think about that as we begin to investigate these markets.”
Those key metrics that make the U.S. competitive are safety, quality and health advantages— all messaging that is synonymous with California almonds and relevant to this new audience.
“Quality and safety aren’t the only things we’re going to hang our hats on,” Rose said. “We’ve got a lot of health messaging that we’re going to take advantage of as well, just like we’re doing in all of our other markets.”
Choosing target markets
While it’s not realistic to tackle the entire region, four countries are standing out. Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, and Tunisia each have unique reasons as to how California almonds can fit into the diets, culture, and lifestyle of their citizens.
Perhaps the most familiar to California almonds is Morocco. In fact, the country now stands as the industry’s tenth largest export market, and new infrastructure is being built, which will support these growing shipments.
“Almonds have been a key part of the diet, particularly in Morocco,” Adams explained.
It’s common for almonds to be incorporated into at least one meal per day for Moroccans, and experts also believe the country can serve as the gateway to Africa.
Another unique factor to Morocco is its free trade agreement with the U.S.
“A zero-percent duty provides an exceptional opportunity and advantage over other origin suppliers,” said Adams.
In Egypt, nut consumption has grown by over 50% in the last three years, and similar growth is happening in neighboring countries. Egypt is particularly exciting because it’s also the population epicenter for this region, and it’s highly urbanized, meaning that its consumers are looking for safe, high quality food to be imported.
Unique to Algeria is their willingness to splurge on high quality food products. They have one of the region’s highest per-capita expenditures on food, a robust confectionary industry and are supported by strong distribution channels.
Compared to the other markets, Tunisia’s economy took longer to recover from the effects of COVID, but studies show it still presents a valuable opportunity for almonds because tourism is on the rise and consumers spend a good portion of their income on food.
Obstacles to overcome
Just like any market, North Africa does come with its challenges. With a high proportion of almonds distributed through wholesale channels, there’s potential for market disruption and a volatile pricing system.
“That means that when the local price of when your container arrives is dramatically lower than the price of your contract, then there will be some issues,” said Stuart McAllister, president and CEO of Terra Nova Trading. “It’s about picking the right trading partners, getting pre-shipment deposits, and trying to maintain a safe way of doing business.”
Another challenge California almonds will have to overcome are the barriers which stem from local crop production. Knowing that, ABC will need to communicate that California almonds can compete with local options in terms of price and freshness. Many Africans perceive local products as fresher, believing they are “in season” compared to imports.
“There’s a lot of honor buying their own crop,” Sunny Toor, CEO of Valley Pride, explained. “I don’t think freshness is a factor; it’s more psychological.”
Future outlook
The intricacies associated with North Africa undoubtedly present new challenges for California almonds, but the potential and opportunity remain undeniable. As the region becomes more open to high quality, sustainable products, California almonds are well positioned to meet the rising demand for nutritious snacks.
By focusing on building strong relationships with key markets like Morocco, Egypt, Algeria, and Tunisia, and leveraging the region’s appreciation for U.S. quality, almonds can successfully establish a lasting presence and capitalize on the opportunities ahead.
Main image: Shipping docks.
Photo: Almond Board of California