The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)Â released their 2025 California Walnut Objective Measurement Report last Thursday, forecasting a strong production year for the California walnut industry. Projected output is 710,000 tons, an 18% increase from 2024 but still below 2023’s output.
Forecast
The forecast is based on a slightly decreased bearing acreage of 365,000 acres, down 1% from 2024. Key factors contributing to the improved projection include a significant 28% increase in the average nut set per tree: a rise to 972 vs. only 761 in 2024. The statewide percentage of sound kernels in-shell is at 99.2%.
The 2025 survey sampled 756 orchard blocks with two trees per block. Average in-shell weights and dimensions for 2025 were stable: average nut weight is 21.3 grams with average dimensions of 38.1mm x 33.5 mm.
Outlook
This year’s report highlights resilience and favorable conditions in California’s walnut production, even with this year’s acreage adjustments. Growers can expect a good market, excellent kernel soundness, and improved nut set per tree. There’s an 80% confidence range for production between 600,000 and 820,000 tons this year— that means some variability, but a great outlook overall compared to 2024.
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